On 7 17, Moutai announced its second price increase of the year, raising the i Moutai retail price from 1539 yuan to 1639 yuan. On the same day, the national Baijiu month-over-month price index in mid-7 fell by 0.35%—while the industry leader confidently raised prices, the broader sector remains bottoming out. Anyone involved in procurement has likely felt it: beverage business has been tough in the first half of this year.
Data from the China National Liquor Association shows that 74.8% of circulating businesses saw revenue shrink, 86.7% experienced profit declines, and over half of distributors faced price inversion. However, is the industry in decline? Not exactly. The plain-bottle liquor segment is approaching 2200 billion yuan, with high-end plain bottles priced between 50 and 100 yuan growing at over 40% annually. The low-alcohol baijiu market stands at 742 billion yuan with a CAGR of 25%. Wuliangye's 8° "Love at First Sight" launched with sales exceeding 100 million yuan in just 60 days, while Mei Jian plum wine continues to post double-digit growth over the past six months.
To put it simply, alcohol isn't selling poorly—your product selection strategy has changed.
Three key directions to focus on for second-half product selection
1. Light-bottle liquor remains a hard currency, but focus on authentic lines.
The total market size of the plain bottle liquor segment is approaching 2200 billion yuan. The high-end plain bottle range from 50 to 100 yuan is the core growth driver, with a growth rate exceeding 40%. Fenjiu's Bobin achieved over 120 billion yuan in single-product sales over 2025 years. The 88-yuan Mutong Crystal Fen, launched 2026 years ago, surpassed 100 million yuan in just 30 days after launch. Plain bottle liquor boasts a repurchase rate as high as 86%, and the quality of premium plain bottles in the 100-yuan price tier fully competes with boxed products priced hundreds of yuan higher.
But there's a catch: OEM light-bottle liquor and flagship light-bottle liquor are completely different. After the new national standard phased out liquid-method "Bai Niuer," the growth driver for this wave is the combination of compliance benefits for pure grain light-bottle liquor under 50 yuan and self-consumption demand amid consumption downgrading. When selecting light-bottle liquor in the second half, prioritize direct talks with source distilleries that have their own brewing bases and can provide full traceability. The more intermediaries involved, the thinner the profit margin.
II. Low-alcohol refreshing drinks and healthy wines are growth segments, but early positioning is critical.
The low-alcohol Baijiu market has reached 742 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 25%. This isn't just "high-proof liquor diluted with water"—it's a technological revolution. Advanced techniques like nano-filtration efficiently remove fusel oils, delivering a silky-smooth mouthfeel and a milder buzz. It precisely addresses the key concern of younger consumers and women: wanting to drink without the burden.
Leading liquor companies are heavily investing in lower-alcohol options: Wuliangye's 29-degree "Love at First Sight" launched, breaking ¥60 billion in sales within days; Luzhou Laojiao's 28-degree "Highlight" is available in 5ml international and 50ml mini versions; Gujing Gongjiu's 26-degree "Light Gujing" targets consumers aged 25 to 35. Instant retail channels are even more impressive—liquor instant retail reached ¥500 billion in 2025, with projections rising to ¥1000 billion this year, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 60%. On Tmall Liquor, the number of young users aged 18 to 24 grew by over 70% year-over-year, while female user share surpassed 45%.
The challenge is that this sector sees rapid brand iteration. Relying solely on scattered online product selection often leads to picking short-lived viral items. Directly engaging with manufacturers at trade shows to discuss product roadmaps is far more reliable than browsing online listings.
3. Avoid mid-range gift wine boxes whenever possible.
The mid-range gift box liquor segment priced between 300 and 800 yuan carries the highest risk. Core consumption scenarios—such as corporate entertaining and annual meetings—are shrinking, while oversupply has made price inversion a norm. Inventory loses 20% to 40% of its value within a year. Data shows that sales of sub-premium bottled baijiu in the 300 to 800 yuan range have generally declined by 10% to 20%.
Moutai raised prices twice this year. This didn't ring the bell of industry recovery; it was a dull thud signaling deep divergence in the baijiu sector. The budget segment is consolidating around brands, while the ultra-premium tier remains exclusively dominated by Moutai. The hardest hit is the premium-midrange segment from 300 to 800 yuan—lacking both high-end premium pricing and mass-market scale. Unless backed by clear group purchase orders, bulk buying is digging your own hole.
Summary: H2 liquor sourcing strategy. For plain bottles, prioritize direct-source brands; for low-alcohol trendy drinks, secure early positioning; avoid mid-range gift boxes. The core selection criterion has shifted from "lowest price" to "controllable source, stable quality, and compliant channels." This is why we recommend buyers meet with source companies directly at the exhibition.
Super Harvest Hangzhou Exhibition · Recommended Wine & Beverage Companies
From 8 to 21, the Super Extraction Hangzhou Exhibition will be held at the Hangzhou International Expo Center. The following 15 companies have confirmed their participation, covering categories such as baijiu, wine, imported and exported beverages, dairy products, etc. We recommend reviewing them in advance and prioritizing visits during the exhibition:
| No. | Company Name | Category Direction |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hangzhou Renyang Yitouniu Biological Technology Co., Ltd. | Dairy & Milk Drinks |
| 2 | Henan Ronghui Global Bonded Trade Co., Ltd. | Imported Beverages / Bonded Supply Chain |
| 3 | Zhejiang Meilijian Food Co., Ltd. | Dairy & Milk Drinks |
| 4 | Zongjiu (Shanxi) Group Co., Ltd. Jiangsu Branch | Baijiu |
| 5 | Hangzhou Saimeng Import & Export Co., Ltd. | Import & Export of Beverages |
| 6 | Beijing Baoshitu International Wine Co., Ltd. | Wine / Imported Wine |
| 7 | Note Wine Marketing (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. | Wine |
| 8 | Liangdashi Liquor (Shandong) Co., Ltd. | Baijiu |
| 9 | Suqian Yinsheng Trading Co., Ltd. | Liquor / Alcohol Distribution |
| 10 | Henan Yiqi Benfu Industrial Development Co., Ltd. | Alcohol & Beverages |
| 11 | Henan Jinpintang Management Co., Ltd. | Alcohol / Brand Management |
| 12 | Jinan Bestiquan Liquor Industry Co., Ltd. | Baijiu |
| 13 | Hong Gui Quan Liquor Industry Co., Ltd., Renhuai City, Guizhou Province | Sauce-aroma Baijiu |
| 14 | Guan Nan Tanggou Qujiu Co., Ltd. | Baijiu (Jiangsu Premium Spirit) |
| 15 | Hangzhou Saimeng Import & Export Co., Ltd. | Import & Export of Beverages |
Product Recommendations:
Procure for the core Baijiu portfolio, focusing on Zongjiu Group, Liangdashi Liquor, Jinan Baishiquan, Renhui Hongguiquan, and Guannan Tanggou Qujiu. These suppliers cover clear-aroma, strong-aroma, sauce-aroma, and premium Jiangsu liquor segments, enabling one-stop comparison of pricing structures and agency policies across different aroma profiles.
To expand into wine and imported spirits, schedule a joint meeting with Beijing Baoshitu, Note Wine, and Hangzhou Saimeng Import & Export to explore import channels and pricing tiers.
In the dairy category, Renyang Yitou Niu and Meilijian are both dominant regional brands, making them ideal selections for the supermarket dairy aisle.
The benefits of trade shows are obvious: visiting 15 source companies in one day is far more efficient than spending half a month on business trips. We recommend marking your priority targets in advance and bringing your procurement requirements list and target price range to make on-site negotiations more focused.