In 40℃ Summers, Cola Sales Stagnate: A Signal of Structural Shift in the Beverage Category

I spoke with a convenience store owner in Zhengzhou a few days ago, and one thing he said stopped me in my tracks: "In past summers, selling dozens of cases of Coke and Sprite per day was the norm during the dog days. But stock from March is still sitting on shelves. During our anniversary sale, we offered Fanta as a free gift, yet customers kept waving it off, asking for bottled water instead."

This isn't an isolated case. This summer, temperatures across the country repeatedly exceeded 40°C—the traditional three-month gold rush for the beverage industry. Yet, classic sugary carbonated drinks faced their coldest peak season ever. It's not that it wasn't hot enough; consumers' tastes have changed.

What's really driving this? I've broken down the key data points to discuss the structural shifts in the beverage category and what they mean for us in supermarket retail.

1. Data first: Peak season underperformed, but the divergence was beyond expectations.

But there's a key detail here that's often overlooked—The crash isn't in the "carbonated" category itself, but specifically in "sugar-sweetened carbonated beverages."。

According to Euromonitor data, overall carbonated beverage sales saw a modest 4.3% growth in the first half of 2026, driven entirely by the sugar-free segment. Sugar-free carbonated beverages grew 13% year-over-year, accounting for 37.1% of total carbonated beverage sales revenue. In contrast, classic sugary colas and Sprite recorded over 12% declines in second-quarter offline sales compared to last year; some community stores reported traditional soda sales at less than half of their levels from the same period last year.

The impact is more immediate for distributors. In previous years, carbonated beverage inventory turnover took around 30 days; this year, it has extended to 70–90 days. A supermarket owner in Jinan noted that while they used to stock up on 3-packs of cola at a time, last year they shifted to purchasing 4- or 5-packs, and this year they're buying single units, restocking only when shortages occur.

A more intuitive comparison: At its peak, carbonated drinks accounted for nearly half of the bottled beverage market; by 2026, their share had shrunk to around 18%. Meanwhile, the sugar-free tea market is projected to exceed 1352 billion yuan this year, marking the first time it has captured over half the market.

II. Three structural shifts, not short-term fluctuations

Many people's first reaction is "everyone is cutting sugar." That's true, but it only scratches the surface. The real driver behind this shift is three simultaneous and irreversible structural inflection points.

1. Checking ingredient lists has become second nature for consumers.

The Ipsos 2026 Food & Beverage Trends Report shows that 69% of consumers check health claims before buying beverages. The top three factors are "clean label/no unnecessary additives" (33%), "low-calorie/low-carb" (32%), and "low-sugar/no sugar" (31%).

A 33ml can of cola contains about 35 grams of sugar—right at the daily added sugar limit recommended by China's Dietary Guidelines for Residents. This number was once overlooked, but today, consumers can easily name it off the top of their heads.

More critically, this generation of people who grew up drinking Coke is now entering the 35-45 age range after 80 and 90. Blood sugar and uric acid levels in their physical exams speak louder than any advertisement. They've stopped drinking it themselves and won't buy it for their children either. Children used to be a key demographic for carbonated beverages, but parents are now highly vigilant about high sugar causing cavities and childhood obesity. For cooling off, they now prioritize mineral water, coconut water, and pure fruit juice.

2. Generational shift in categories: New consumers lack "Coke nostalgia."

Since 00 and 10, young people have grown up with hundreds of options like unsweetened tea, sparkling water, and freshly brewed drinks. They lack the collective memory that "drinking cola = being trendy," making carbonated beverages just one of many choices—and arguably the most old-fashioned.

Data from 2026 on a major e-commerce platform shows that beverage searches with "Zero Sugar" or "Low Sugar" labels grew by 127% year-over-year, while carbonated drink searches dropped by 31%. Among younger consumers, 68% now prioritize drinks with less than 5% sugar content, compared to just 32% five years ago.

This isn't downgrading consumption; it's an upgrade. Consumers are willing to pay a premium for healthier products. Where once they might have chosen a sugary drink at 3, more and more people now unhesitatingly opt for a sugar-free cold brew tea at 5.

3. Channels and scenarios are reshaping; the "home turf" of carbonated beverages is shrinking.

The primary consumption scenario for carbonated soft drinks is social gatherings—barbecues, late-night snacks, and group drinking. However, in recent years, the frequency of offline dining has declined, while the hydration needs of laborers at construction sites are shifting toward electrolyte water. Additionally, the habit of purchasing drinks in bulk for home use has weakened as household sizes shrink.

Channel shifts are more direct. Sugar-free teas and electrolyte waters have taken the prime spots in convenience store freezers, pushing traditional sodas to lower shelves. Research shows that some supermarkets have reduced carbonated beverage display space by over 70%.

At the same time, snack discount stores slashed prices, instant retail delivers in 30 minutes, and chain beverage shops have surpassed {10,000} nationwide—consumers aren't buying fewer drinks; they're simply choosing different ways to get them.

3. What Are Leading Brands Doing? Transformation Is Already Underway

Brands know the trends best and act fast:

Coca-ColaThe sugar-free line accounted for 58.7% of total carbonated beverage revenue in 2026, establishing the Zero series as the brand's top revenue driver. While classic sugary cola sales plummeted by 60% year-over-year in Q2, the Zero and Fiber+ sugar-free lines bucked the trend with a 13% increase.

PepsiThe traditional sugary product line continues to decline, with lime sugar-free and sparkling water stabilizing market share. Meanwhile, we are partnering with JD.com to launch plant-based protein drinks, expanding into the health sector.

Genki Forest#1 domestic brand in the carbonated beverage category, with a 6.9% market share. In 2026, our carbonated business generated over 95 billion yuan in sales—all from our 0 sugar and 0 calorie product lines.

Regional Heritage Brands(North Pole, Ice Peak, Hankou No. 2 Factory) — Single-brand market share of 1%–3%, regional sales volume steadily growing by over 10%. Features nostalgic glass bottles and fruit-flavored sodas, supported by the F&B channel, but national expansion remains slow.

The brand's message is clear: it's not about abandoning carbonation, but redefining it from "high-sugar sugary drinks" to a "textural element" integrated into more healthy beverages. The demand for fizz never disappeared; it simply found a new carrier.

IV. What does this mean for supermarket operators?

After discussing the data and trends, let's focus on practical steps. I've spoken with many supermarket owners who face direct issues from unsold carbonated beverages: capital tied up in inventory and valuable shelf space being wasted. Here are a few actionable recommendations:

First, adjust the procurement ratio.For summer beverage inventory, follow this ratio: essential bottled water at 60%, unsweetened tea and electrolyte drinks at 30%, niche sparkling water and coffee at 8%, and traditional carbonated sodas for gatherings at 2%. Significantly reduce orders for sugary sodas. Use sales data to guide procurement—avoid bulk stockpiling.

Second, change the display logic.Position sugar-free teas and electrolyte waters at eye level in the middle shelf of the refrigerated case, while moving traditional sugary sodas to secondary locations. What consumers see first upon entering the store largely determines their purchase decisions.

Third, scenario-based bundling.Bundle select carbonated drinks with braised snacks and hot pot bases for evening gathering deals; offer case-level discounts. Set up a dedicated discount zone for near-expiry items to clear stock at compliant low prices and minimize losses.

Fourth, keep the sugar-free carbonated drinks.Don't cut all carbonated drinks. The demand for sugar-free sparkling water and zero-calorie cola is growing; capture this opportunity. The key is shifting from "what we sell" to "what consumers need."

5. How does this relate to our industry?

The structural shift in the beverage category reflects the evolution of the entire supermarket retail supply chain. Consumers no longer seek just "affordability and thirst-quenching," but rather "health, differentiation, and quality." For those building supermarket supply chains, this is an opportunity—not a crisis.

At this year's Hangzhou exhibition from 8/19 to 21, we have specially set upDairy & Beverage SectionThis section brings together leading suppliers at the forefront of beverage categories—from sugar-free teas and functional sparkling waters to plant-based drinks—covering the most dynamic growth areas in today's beverage market. If you're refining your store's beverage lineup or seeking new supply chain partners, this section is worth exploring.

At the end of the day, there's no permanent "happy drink"—only ever-changing consumers. Whoever grasps trends first, optimizes their shelf strategy, and selects the right suppliers will secure their place in the next round of category reshuffling.

Which drink sold best in your store this summer? Share your thoughts in the comments.